Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Jul 30 19:18:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd I'm arguing that models like e.g. the Economist's that have Biden at 99% to win the popular vote based largely on an economic prior are likely misspecified. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not opposed to re-examining assumptions when faced with an obvious edge case. In the abstract, it would be better to have a model that anticipated edge cases in advance—but that's not always feasible. I am, however, opposed to overconfident models ESPECIALLY in an edge case. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's not the most important check on power by any means. But representative and accurate polling does have an important role if there are leaders who would misleadingly declare themselves winners before the vote is counted, or who would try to prevent the vote from being counted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated