Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Thu Jul 30 18:07:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Literally that's what people (e.g. The Economist's model) is doing. They're just "adjust[ing]" their "economic index" in arbitrary ways so that it doesn't produce a crazy-looking number for 2020. https://t.co/d4B9XWmmw1 https://t.co/gDf3rE4Bkd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, if you're constructing such a model *this year*, you'll choose variables in way that just so happens to come up with a reasonable-looking prediction (i.e. it has Trump losing, but not by 36 points). But that's no longer an economic model; it's just your personal prior. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe these adjustments are reasonable. But what you *can't* do is say none of the data is really salient to 2020, so much so that you have to make some ad-hoc, one-off adjustments, and *then* claim Biden is 99% to win the popular vote because the historical data proves it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated