Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Jul 30 17:42:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, if you're constructing such a model *this year*, you'll choose variables in way that just so happens to come up with a reasonable-looking prediction (i.e. it has Trump losing, but not by 36 points). But that's no longer an economic model; it's just your personal prior. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias People will totally do this. They'll add a "pandemic dummy variable" to 2020 which is literally just mathematically the same as throwing 2020 out of the sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Literally that's what people (e.g. The Economist's model) is doing. They're just "adjust[ing]" their "economic index" in arbitrary ways so that it doesn't produce a crazy-looking number for 2020. https://t.co/d4B9XWmmw1 https://t.co/gDf3rE4Bkd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated