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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

Created

Thu Jul 30 17:32:54 +0000 2020

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98

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias People will totally do this. They'll add a "pandemic dummy variable" to 2020 which is literally just mathematically the same as throwing 2020 out of the sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looking at these "fundamentals" models (something I spent a ton of time in 2012) was really a seminal moment for me in learning about p-hacking and the replication crisis. It was amazing to me how poorly they performed on actual, not-known-in-advance data. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, if you're constructing such a model *this year*, you'll choose variables in way that just so happens to come up with a reasonable-looking prediction (i.e. it has Trump losing, but not by 36 points). But that's no longer an economic model; it's just your personal prior. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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