Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Thu Jul 30 17:30:52 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Looking at these "fundamentals" models (something I spent a ton of time in 2012) was really a seminal moment for me in learning about p-hacking and the replication crisis. It was amazing to me how poorly they performed on actual, not-known-in-advance data. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It certainly helps to use a wider array of indicators over a longer time frame (that's what we do) but the notion that you can make a highly *precise* forecast from fundamentals alone in *this* economy just doesn't pass the smell test. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias People will totally do this. They'll add a "pandemic dummy variable" to 2020 which is literally just mathematically the same as throwing 2020 out of the sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated