Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Jul 30 18:11:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe these adjustments are reasonable. But what you *can't* do is say none of the data is really salient to 2020, so much so that you have to make some ad-hoc, one-off adjustments, and *then* claim Biden is 99% to win the popular vote because the historical data proves it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Literally that's what people (e.g. The Economist's model) is doing. They're just "adjust[ing]" their "economic index" in arbitrary ways so that it doesn't produce a crazy-looking number for 2020. https://t.co/d4B9XWmmw1 https://t.co/gDf3rE4Bkd — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris On the off-chance our respective employers would allow it, which they almost certainly wouldn't in my case, could I get some Trump wins the popular vote action from you at 100:1? Or even say 40:1? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated