Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 17:24:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In our snapshot, the tipping-point state is Pennsylvania (Biden +7.2). By comparison, we show Biden up 8.6 points nationally based on our snapshot. (Similar to his margin in national polls, though the snapshot mostly uses state polls.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For comparison, here's our current *snapshot* in each state (our estimate of the result in an election held today) which combines the regression technique described below with polls, plus some mean reversion based on a state's partisan baseline. https://t.co/rugxLX9y7V — PolitiTweet.org

FWIW, here's a regression-based estimate of Biden's current standing in each state. This works by taking our state… https://t.co/QDHFD5o8P8

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So we do show an Electoral College vs. popular vote gap that works in Trump's favor, although it's about half as large as in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated