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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Tue Jul 28 17:22:03 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For comparison, here's our current *snapshot* in each state (our estimate of the result in an election held today) which combines the regression technique described below with polls, plus some mean reversion based on a state's partisan baseline. https://t.co/rugxLX9y7V — PolitiTweet.org

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, here's a regression-based estimate of Biden's current standing in each state. This works by taking our state… https://t.co/QDHFD5o8P8

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's not about the implementation. I'm saying that MRP likely produces at best only marginal gains over techniques that rely only upon topline numbers. It just doesn't squeeze that much additional information out of your dataset. And it has a lot of drawbacks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In our snapshot, the tipping-point state is Pennsylvania (Biden +7.2). By comparison, we show Biden up 8.6 points nationally based on our snapshot. (Similar to his margin in national polls, though the snapshot mostly uses state polls.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated