Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

Created

Tue Jul 28 00:26:03 +0000 2020

Likes

112

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My point is more that I wouldn't be wanting to use an overly precise or deterministic prior when there is a ton of economic uncertainty (we'd guess ~3x higher than normal) and different variables say different things about the state of the economy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, the *prior* shifts by ~5 points, but our model doesn't actually weight the prior that heavily because we think the relationship the economy and incumbent performance isn't actually that strong. A 5-point shift in the prior might imply a 1-2 point shift in the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

If @NateSilver538 projects 5 point gain in Trump's #s based on economic outlook that seems like too much since Trum… https://t.co/ZcxFkRXBvw

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @wiederkehra: So I promised more behind-the-scenes of the @FiveThirtyEight 2020 forecast. Today I'll walk you through the development of… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Retweet Hibernated