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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, the *prior* shifts by ~5 points, but our model doesn't actually weight the prior that heavily because we think the relationship the economy and incumbent performance isn't actually that strong. A 5-point shift in the prior might imply a 1-2 point shift in the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

If @NateSilver538 projects 5 point gain in Trump's #s based on economic outlook that seems like too much since Trum… https://t.co/ZcxFkRXBvw

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'd also note that our economic index uses disposable income as one of its 6 variables and Trump/the economic index is currently getting a big boost from transfer payments. If those lapse, may underperform projections. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

My point is more that I wouldn't be wanting to use an overly precise or deterministic prior when there is a ton of economic uncertainty (we'd guess ~3x higher than normal) and different variables say different things about the state of the economy. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated