Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 20:10:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart NYC is instructive because it counts probable deaths, which most places don't (although an increasing number do). In mid-April, probable deaths were 36% of total (confirmed+probable) deaths in NYC. Now that has fallen to 20%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@TheStalwart There were likely far more unrecorded deaths (both as a proportion of all deaths and in absolute numbers) in March/April than there are now. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For people wondering what our model actually says about 2020: I don't actually know yet! The programming is mostly done, but processing 2020 is the last step. Making design choices *without* knowing how it'll affect the current forecast is a helpful way to stay at arm's-length. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated