Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 17:34:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do think the punditry slightly underrates the chance of 1a) (i.e. the COVID situation getting better) just because it's been pretty hard to predict then the ebbs and flows in COVID spread and the COVID models have wide ranges for what'll happen by November 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Something else" might include a fairly long menu of options, range from a Biden gaffe to some military entanglement to a Supreme Court vacancy to simply a large polling error. Of course, there are also wild cards/"something elses" that could make Trump's position even worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I am more skeptical that Trump would get credit for it, though, especially because the cumulative pain from COVID & lockdowns may still be getting worse by Nov. even if cases/deaths are declining. Possibly also the economic fallout, especially if Republicans screw up on stimulus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated