Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 17:30:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Something else" might include a fairly long menu of options, range from a Biden gaffe to some military entanglement to a Supreme Court vacancy to simply a large polling error. Of course, there are also wild cards/"something elses" that could make Trump's position even worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, my general read that to make the election competitive, Trump probably needs (1a) the coronavirus situation to get objectively better by November; (1b) to receive *some* degree of credit for it and (2) "something else". — PolitiTweet.org

That's not good! He almost certainly can't win with that. It might go down, but there's a reasonable chance that a… https://t.co/fwYdANKuZ5

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I do think the punditry slightly underrates the chance of 1a) (i.e. the COVID situation getting better) just because it's been pretty hard to predict then the ebbs and flows in COVID spread and the COVID models have wide ranges for what'll happen by November 3. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated