Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 17:28:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, my general read that to make the election competitive, Trump probably needs (1a) the coronavirus situation to get objectively better by November; (1b) to receive *some* degree of credit for it and (2) "something else". — PolitiTweet.org

That's not good! He almost certainly can't win with that. It might go down, but there's a reasonable chance that a… https://t.co/fwYdANKuZ5

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BenjySarlin @NickRiccardi @joshtpm The problem is that, although Europe had much stricter lockdowns than the US in March/April, it's not clear to me that they have stricter ones *now*, *or* that they took longer to scale back. The timelines and scope of relaxations were fairly similar from what research I've done. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

"Something else" might include a fairly long menu of options, range from a Biden gaffe to some military entanglement to a Supreme Court vacancy to simply a large polling error. Of course, there are also wild cards/"something elses" that could make Trump's position even worse. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated