Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

Created

Mon Jul 27 02:47:36 +0000 2020

Likes

202

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So we're going to try to account for both types of error. Bucket 2) involves a LOT of guesswork. Technically, it will be based on how much forecast error increases historically when there are big changes in turnout. But to be honest this is just an educated guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bucket 2) is a lot trickier, I think, since there are no real solid precedents for COVID. (Maybe something like Hurricane Sandy, but that only affected a couple of states.) But there have been too many issues IMO with voting in these late-stage primaries to ignore it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Because the sample size for drawing this inference is basically n=0, we'll draw this additional error term from a distribution containing rather fat tails. What this means is that *most* of the time, we assume this will have little impact but there's SOME chance it has a BIG one. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated