Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 02:41:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bucket 2) is a lot trickier, I think, since there are no real solid precedents for COVID. (Maybe something like Hurricane Sandy, but that only affected a couple of states.) But there have been too many issues IMO with voting in these late-stage primaries to ignore it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bucket 1) is easy enough to handle empirically. You can look at whether election cycles with lots of major news developments tend to be associated with more polling volatility and/or polling error, and indeed they do, although note the usual issues with small sample sizes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So we're going to try to account for both types of error. Bucket 2) involves a LOT of guesswork. Technically, it will be based on how much forecast error increases historically when there are big changes in turnout. But to be honest this is just an educated guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated