Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 02:38:40 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bucket 1) is easy enough to handle empirically. You can look at whether election cycles with lots of major news developments tend to be associated with more polling volatility and/or polling error, and indeed they do, although note the usual issues with small sample sizes. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically, the additional uncertainty introduced into an election forecast by COVID-19 falls into two buckets: 1) It means there's a lot of *news* and economic volatility. 2) It could screw with the mechanics of voting, vote-counting or polling in unpredictable ways. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Bucket 2) is a lot trickier, I think, since there are no real solid precedents for COVID. (Maybe something like Hurricane Sandy, but that only affected a couple of states.) But there have been too many issues IMO with voting in these late-stage primaries to ignore it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated