Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Mon Jul 27 02:52:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Because the sample size for drawing this inference is basically n=0, we'll draw this additional error term from a distribution containing rather fat tails. What this means is that *most* of the time, we assume this will have little impact but there's SOME chance it has a BIG one. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So we're going to try to account for both types of error. Bucket 2) involves a LOT of guesswork. Technically, it will be based on how much forecast error increases historically when there are big changes in turnout. But to be honest this is just an educated guess. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We'll also assume that this additional error could either affect all states systematically, or could impact states on a one-off basis. One upshot is that if I were a campaign, I might play a fairly broad map, in case things get weird in some state that's part of my path to 270. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 27, 2020 Hibernated