Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 19:02:05 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Some of the key parameters are actually calibrated off of elections since 1936 (error associated with final polling averages) or 1880 (economic + incumbency priors). But we can only run the robust version of the model (with lots of state polling) for more recent elections. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Everything is in-sample, more or less, but there are a handful of decently meaningful corrections we make to reflect deterioration in out-of-sample performance, and the odds listed here reflect those. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think people realize how dumb and sometimes even irrational the prices are at political betting markets as compared to almost every other type of market (which is not to say other markets are always rational, either). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated