Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 18:55:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Everything is in-sample, more or less, but there are a handful of decently meaningful corrections we make to reflect deterioration in out-of-sample performance, and the odds listed here reflect those. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1968: Nixon 73% to win 1972: Nixon 99% 1976: Carter 55% 1980: Reagan 89% 1984: Reagan 96% 1988: Dukakis 61% 1992: Clinton 69% 1996: Clinton 93% 2000: Bush 73% 2004: Bush 55% 2008: Obama 67% 2012: Obama 68% 2016: Clinton 58% — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Some of the key parameters are actually calibrated off of elections since 1936 (error associated with final polling averages) or 1880 (economic + incumbency priors). But we can only run the robust version of the model (with lots of state polling) for more recent elections. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated