Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 18:49:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1968: Nixon 73% to win 1972: Nixon 99% 1976: Carter 55% 1980: Reagan 89% 1984: Reagan 96% 1988: Dukakis 61% 1992: Clinton 69% 1996: Clinton 93% 2000: Bush 73% 2004: Bush 55% 2008: Obama 67% 2012: Obama 68% 2016: Clinton 58% — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Backtesting isn't super informative for any number of reasons. But just for "fun", here are the Electoral College odds the current build of the 538 model would have given 100 days out (see next tweet). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Everything is in-sample, more or less, but there are a handful of decently meaningful corrections we make to reflect deterioration in out-of-sample performance, and the odds listed here reflect those. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated