Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 18:49:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Backtesting isn't super informative for any number of reasons. But just for "fun", here are the Electoral College odds the current build of the 538 model would have given 100 days out (see next tweet). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If we run the 2020 version of our model on 2016, it gives Clinton a 70% chance of winning the Electoral College, vs. 71%/72% in our actual final 2016 model (polls-only/polls-plus). So adding in 2016 data doesn't change much; it was a pretty normal-sized polling error. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

1968: Nixon 73% to win 1972: Nixon 99% 1976: Carter 55% 1980: Reagan 89% 1984: Reagan 96% 1988: Dukakis 61% 1992: Clinton 69% 1996: Clinton 93% 2000: Bush 73% 2004: Bush 55% 2008: Obama 67% 2012: Obama 68% 2016: Clinton 58% — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated