Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 16:03:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If we run the 2020 version of our model on 2016, it gives Clinton a 70% chance of winning the Electoral College, vs. 71%/72% in our actual final 2016 model (polls-only/polls-plus). So adding in 2016 data doesn't change much; it was a pretty normal-sized polling error. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The good reasons to be cautious about what will happen in November involve (i) coronavirus and all the other news and (ii) the longer-term history of polling 100 days out not being all that accurate. The bad reasons involve that Trump won as a mere 2:1 or 3:1 underdog in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Backtesting isn't super informative for any number of reasons. But just for "fun", here are the Electoral College odds the current build of the 538 model would have given 100 days out (see next tweet). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated