Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 14:54:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The good reasons to be cautious about what will happen in November involve (i) coronavirus and all the other news and (ii) the longer-term history of polling 100 days out not being all that accurate. The bad reasons involve that Trump won as a mere 2:1 or 3:1 underdog in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @aedwardslevy: Because this is a good use of time on Saturday night, I want to just pull out this 2016 post-mortem from the pollsters' p… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Retweet Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If we run the 2020 version of our model on 2016, it gives Clinton a 70% chance of winning the Electoral College, vs. 71%/72% in our actual final 2016 model (polls-only/polls-plus). So adding in 2016 data doesn't change much; it was a pretty normal-sized polling error. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated