Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 19:06:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't think people realize how dumb and sometimes even irrational the prices are at political betting markets as compared to almost every other type of market (which is not to say other markets are always rational, either). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@kmedved Some of the key parameters are actually calibrated off of elections since 1936 (error associated with final polling averages) or 1880 (economic + incumbency priors). But we can only run the robust version of the model (with lots of state polling) for more recent elections. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IMO this reflects a combination of: * Modeling being fairly challenging (so most traders don't have good priors to anchor to) * Traders are emotionally invested in political outcomes * Herd mentality very strong in politics * Markets not super liquid — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated