Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Thu Jul 23 18:58:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is why modeling is tricky, by the way. Are I comfortable assuming that COVID has zero effect on turnout patterns? (In ways that could increase polling error?) Not really. Is there a good way to model it empirically? Also, not really; no great precedents for COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I haven't seen a study on this. But there are roughly a million unpredictable effects like this that COVID could have, perhaps in a quirky way state by state, and I keep going back and forth on whether to try to account for that somehow in our model ... leaning "yes". — PolitiTweet.org

@NickRiccardi @NateSilver538 I’d love to see a comprehensive study on this. Because a lot of important college town… https://t.co/U4pnAL4Smh

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I just want to point out that a *lot* has gone wrong since we did this. — PolitiTweet.org

I suppose we could just plug the Upshot needle into our model but slightly afraid of potential disruptions in the s… https://t.co/RDqYEawwbw

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated