Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Thu Jul 23 21:37:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I just want to point out that a *lot* has gone wrong since we did this. — PolitiTweet.org

I suppose we could just plug the Upshot needle into our model but slightly afraid of potential disruptions in the s… https://t.co/RDqYEawwbw

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is why modeling is tricky, by the way. Are I comfortable assuming that COVID has zero effect on turnout patterns? (In ways that could increase polling error?) Not really. Is there a good way to model it empirically? Also, not really; no great precedents for COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking: Newly reported deaths Today: 1,039 Yesterday: 1,126 One week ago (7/16): 974 Newly reported cases T: 71K Y: 70K 7/16: 71K Newly reported tests T: 774K Y: 796K 7/16: 828K Positive test rate T: 9.2% Y: 8.8% 7/16: 8.6% — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated