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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Thu Jul 23 18:46:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I haven't seen a study on this. But there are roughly a million unpredictable effects like this that COVID could have, perhaps in a quirky way state by state, and I keep going back and forth on whether to try to account for that somehow in our model ... leaning "yes". — PolitiTweet.org

Ben Yelin @byelin

@NickRiccardi @NateSilver538 I’d love to see a comprehensive study on this. Because a lot of important college town… https://t.co/U4pnAL4Smh

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, empirically, the best way to forecast the popular vote is to forecast the result in each state and combine them, rather than to use national polls. We don't have that calculation yet but will soon. Might yield a different impression of the popular vote vs. EC gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is why modeling is tricky, by the way. Are I comfortable assuming that COVID has zero effect on turnout patterns? (In ways that could increase polling error?) Not really. Is there a good way to model it empirically? Also, not really; no great precedents for COVID. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated