Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Wed Jul 22 18:13:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yes, Biden is sometimes leading in polls of those states (especially Arizona). But he's way ahead nationally so that's not a huge surprise. Right now our averages have him +2.0 in Ohio but +2.3 in Arizona, so pretty similar. All of this is consistent with mean-reversion. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And I'd argue that you're seeing this in the data this year. Biden is doing "surprisingly" well in the Midwestern states like OH, MI and WI that drifted Republican from 2012 to 2016. But his numbers have been pretty tepid in AZ, GA, TX, states where Dems were gaining ground. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another implication of mean-reversion is that Trump's Electoral College edge could be smaller this year, since state leans could look like some hybrid of 2016 and 2012 (when Obama performed strongly in tipping-point states). And I'd argue that you see that in the data, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated