Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Wed Jul 22 18:16:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another implication of mean-reversion is that Trump's Electoral College edge could be smaller this year, since state leans could look like some hybrid of 2016 and 2012 (when Obama performed strongly in tipping-point states). And I'd argue that you see that in the data, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yes, Biden is sometimes leading in polls of those states (especially Arizona). But he's way ahead nationally so that's not a huge surprise. Right now our averages have him +2.0 in Ohio but +2.3 in Arizona, so pretty similar. All of this is consistent with mean-reversion. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@SopanDeb Yeah, basically. I mean, Texas is clearly becoming more purple. But, if Biden wins by 9 nationally and wins Texas by 1, odds are that it's still a Republican-leaning state in 2024/2028/etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated