Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Wed Jul 22 18:11:20 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And I'd argue that you're seeing this in the data this year. Biden is doing "surprisingly" well in the Midwestern states like OH, MI and WI that drifted Republican from 2012 to 2016. But his numbers have been pretty tepid in AZ, GA, TX, states where Dems were gaining ground. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing that I think people miss is that the partisan lean of a state is slightly mean reverting. Say a state was an R+20 state eight years ago, and an R+10 state four years ago. You might expect it to be a swing state now, right? No. On average it'll be like an R+13. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yes, Biden is sometimes leading in polls of those states (especially Arizona). But he's way ahead nationally so that's not a huge surprise. Right now our averages have him +2.0 in Ohio but +2.3 in Arizona, so pretty similar. All of this is consistent with mean-reversion. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated