Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

Created

Sun Jul 19 23:46:08 +0000 2020

Likes

552

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, because of mediocre testing, we're still only catching a small-ish share of infections, by most estimates. If, per @youyanggu's model, we're catching one-fifth to one-sixth of cases, that means the *infection* fatality rate (IFR) is somewhere in the range of 0.3-0.4%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I like to look at is the lagged case fatality rate (CFR), which is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases some time ago. Over the past week, the lagged CFR has been 1.5% using a 2-week lag. If you prefer a 3-week lag, it's 1.9%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

0.3%-0.4% is still a very dangerous disease (wear a mask, please!). But, it's better than in the spring, where the weight of the evidence based on various estimates I was seeing was concentrated in the range of 0.7%-1.0% or thereabouts. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated