Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Sun Jul 19 23:44:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I like to look at is the lagged case fatality rate (CFR), which is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases some time ago. Over the past week, the lagged CFR has been 1.5% using a 2-week lag. If you prefer a 3-week lag, it's 1.9%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Good chance deaths will increase further. But it does seem likely that the death *rate* from COVID is decreasing, which is good news, even if the number of deaths is increasing because we have so many freakin' cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Deaths rising but still not exploding nationally like they were in the spring. https://t.co/3UDVYwigwv

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, because of mediocre testing, we're still only catching a small-ish share of infections, by most estimates. If, per @youyanggu's model, we're catching one-fifth to one-sixth of cases, that means the *infection* fatality rate (IFR) is somewhere in the range of 0.3-0.4%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated