Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Sun Jul 19 23:49:04 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

0.3%-0.4% is still a very dangerous disease (wear a mask, please!). But, it's better than in the spring, where the weight of the evidence based on various estimates I was seeing was concentrated in the range of 0.7%-1.0% or thereabouts. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Of course, because of mediocre testing, we're still only catching a small-ish share of infections, by most estimates. If, per @youyanggu's model, we're catching one-fifth to one-sixth of cases, that means the *infection* fatality rate (IFR) is somewhere in the range of 0.3-0.4%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@briankoppelman If you properly account for lags, then the CFR is in the range of 1.5-1.9%. But still a huge gap between CFR and IFR because we likely aren't catching most cases (not enough tests, etc.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated