Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Sun Jul 19 15:44:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In fact, this is something we re-examined and tweaked in our averages this year. We still make a likely voter adjustment. But it sticks more to a prior (which in this case, assumes a *slight* Trump gain among LVs) because it's not very predictable how it evolves over the cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Consistent with this, but one thing I've noticed empirically is that the likely voter vs registered voter gap tends to fluctuate a lot over the course of the cycle, and from pollster to pollster. It's a fairly noisy measurement. — PolitiTweet.org

1) In general, self-reported LV screens will be noisy. Think about it. You've got two appx. N=400 samples of Biden… https://t.co/IStKc7QWC9

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing to be aware of is that most national polls currently are conducted among registered voters, while most state polls are among likely voters. So unless you're accounting for that, you may overestimate the state poll vs. national poll gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated