Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Sun Jul 19 15:41:15 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Consistent with this, but one thing I've noticed empirically is that the likely voter vs registered voter gap tends to fluctuate a lot over the course of the cycle, and from pollster to pollster. It's a fairly noisy measurement. — PolitiTweet.org

1) In general, self-reported LV screens will be noisy. Think about it. You've got two appx. N=400 samples of Biden… https://t.co/IStKc7QWC9

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @ABCPolitics: .@NateSilver538 says that mail-in voting is a concern for President Trump, “but not because of abuse or fraud.” “By consi… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Retweet Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In fact, this is something we re-examined and tweaked in our averages this year. We still make a likely voter adjustment. But it sticks more to a prior (which in this case, assumes a *slight* Trump gain among LVs) because it's not very predictable how it evolves over the cycle. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 19, 2020 Hibernated