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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Fri Jul 17 13:42:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

THREAD: In forecasting Trump's fate, one needs to be careful as there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to what the trajectory of the pandemic will look like by November. Overly precise predictions of COVID numbers in X country/state by Y date have generally not fared well. — PolitiTweet.org

Paul Krugman @paulkrugman

On the legitimate election: Trump staked everything on ignoring the virus and reopening the economy. He lost. The v… https://t.co/CAr2fG8Fnp

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One "fun" thought: the period from, oh, say, Nov. 3 through Jan. 20 could be critical to building out the US's vaccine infrastructure, and yet that's a period where you could have a lame-duck president and one can imagine Trump being less than helpful under those circumstances. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What we can say for sure is that the US has *already been hit really hard*. And even if the numbers are improving by the fall—which, to be clear, may take some luck—we'd probably be looking at spring before there's a robust economic recovery and things feel 85% "normal" again. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated