Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Fri Jul 17 13:42:31 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

What we can say for sure is that the US has *already been hit really hard*. And even if the numbers are improving by the fall—which, to be clear, may take some luck—we'd probably be looking at spring before there's a robust economic recovery and things feel 85% "normal" again. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

THREAD: In forecasting Trump's fate, one needs to be careful as there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to what the trajectory of the pandemic will look like by November. Overly precise predictions of COVID numbers in X country/state by Y date have generally not fared well. — PolitiTweet.org

On the legitimate election: Trump staked everything on ignoring the virus and reopening the economy. He lost. The v… https://t.co/CAr2fG8Fnp

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But there probably is a narrow window where by Nov., there have been ~2 months of real improvement. Would that be enough to reelect Trump? I don't know. I tend to think the public would still give him bad marks for COVID, and keep in mind he was behind before any of this started. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 17, 2020 Hibernated