Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 11, 2020

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Thu Jul 09 13:57:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

e.g. There's some evidence R has declined to 1.1-1.2 in some badly-affected states (AZ/TX/FL) from 1.3-1.4. So cases are increasing, but not quite as rapidly. THAT's STILL REALLY BAD since they're increasing from a high base. A plateau (R=1) from a high base would also be bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Periodic reminder that the rate of increase (R) is not the only thing that matters for measuring COVID, and often not the most important thing. The volume of active cases is really important too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the flip side, I don't care that much about whether NY or NJ or MA has an R of 0.9 or 1.0 or 1.1 or whatever since the volume of cases there is now very low. (Higher than that would be a concern if sustained, but R can bounce around a lot when you have a low volume of cases.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2020 Hibernated