Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 11, 2020

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Thu Jul 09 13:57:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

On the flip side, I don't care that much about whether NY or NJ or MA has an R of 0.9 or 1.0 or 1.1 or whatever since the volume of cases there is now very low. (Higher than that would be a concern if sustained, but R can bounce around a lot when you have a low volume of cases.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

e.g. There's some evidence R has declined to 1.1-1.2 in some badly-affected states (AZ/TX/FL) from 1.3-1.4. So cases are increasing, but not quite as rapidly. THAT's STILL REALLY BAD since they're increasing from a high base. A plateau (R=1) from a high base would also be bad. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Be careful with Alaska polls, a state where polling is hard and there's a long history of polls teasing at better results for Democrats than they actually wind up with. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 9, 2020 Hibernated