Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Dec. 5, 2020

Created

Fri Jul 03 19:21:48 +0000 2020

Likes

228

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, we find that since 1880, the economy explains about 30% of variation in the incumbent party's vote share if you adjust for polarization (26% if you don't). We believe this is a more realistic estimate than other models that are fit (often overfit) to more recent data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other dorky note. We've actually calculated an economic index for elections dating back to 1880. The figure expressed in the table below is basically a z-score combining several different variables. Estimates before 1948 are crude: https://t.co/LeIoYN5YjE — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In 1880-1944, you have bigger and more varied economic shocks that are probably more comparable to what's happening today than anything (except perhaps 2007/08) in the postwar era. You also have higher levels of polarization vs. the mid/late 20c. So it's useful data for a model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated