Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 5, 2020

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Fri Jul 03 19:34:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In 1880-1944, you have bigger and more varied economic shocks that are probably more comparable to what's happening today than anything (except perhaps 2007/08) in the postwar era. You also have higher levels of polarization vs. the mid/late 20c. So it's useful data for a model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, we find that since 1880, the economy explains about 30% of variation in the incumbent party's vote share if you adjust for polarization (26% if you don't). We believe this is a more realistic estimate than other models that are fit (often overfit) to more recent data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @NateDuncanNBA: Dunc'd On: How to Evaluate NBA “Sources” with 538’s @perrybaconjr; Schedule Analysis with @DannyLeroux Subscribe: http… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Retweet Hibernated