Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 5, 2020

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Fri Jul 03 19:18:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other dorky note. We've actually calculated an economic index for elections dating back to 1880. The figure expressed in the table below is basically a z-score combining several different variables. Estimates before 1948 are crude: https://t.co/LeIoYN5YjE — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also very likely that greater polarization also decreases the incumbency advantage. If you imagine a generic incumbent president (not Trump) in an average economy, we'd expect them to win the popular vote by only ~3 points given polarization today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, we find that since 1880, the economy explains about 30% of variation in the incumbent party's vote share if you adjust for polarization (26% if you don't). We believe this is a more realistic estimate than other models that are fit (often overfit) to more recent data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated