Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 5, 2020

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Fri Jul 03 18:05:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also very likely that greater polarization also decreases the incumbency advantage. If you imagine a generic incumbent president (not Trump) in an average economy, we'd expect them to win the popular vote by only ~3 points given polarization today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing on this... you do get better (backtested) results if you adjust for the degree of polarization. A projected ~6 point Trump deficit in the popular vote today would be more like 10 points in an era with average polarization. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other dorky note. We've actually calculated an economic index for elections dating back to 1880. The figure expressed in the table below is basically a z-score combining several different variables. Estimates before 1948 are crude: https://t.co/LeIoYN5YjE — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated