Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 5, 2020

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Fri Jul 03 17:59:19 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing on this... you do get better (backtested) results if you adjust for the degree of polarization. A projected ~6 point Trump deficit in the popular vote today would be more like 10 points in an era with average polarization. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dmorey Well, *I* don't know personally ... but we use the SP500 and consensus economic surveys and they actually have some predictive power. Also, though, our model thinks economic uncertainty is about 2.5x higher than normal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also very likely that greater polarization also decreases the incumbency advantage. If you imagine a generic incumbent president (not Trump) in an average economy, we'd expect them to win the popular vote by only ~3 points given polarization today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated