Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 5, 2020

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Fri Jul 03 14:49:54 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@dmorey Well, *I* don't know personally ... but we use the SP500 and consensus economic surveys and they actually have some predictive power. Also, though, our model thinks economic uncertainty is about 2.5x higher than normal. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This does anticipate some degree of an economic rebound. Economic conditions as of *today* would point toward more like a 10-point popular vote loss (actually pretty close to current polls). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thing on this... you do get better (backtested) results if you adjust for the degree of polarization. A projected ~6 point Trump deficit in the popular vote today would be more like 10 points in an era with average polarization. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 3, 2020 Hibernated