Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 22, 2020

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Sat Jun 27 14:51:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

After all, any election where the race is competitive in November requires a substantial change from today, with Biden up +2 or +3 (or less) instead of +9. If there's a big shift back toward Trump, it may not be uniform across states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe Texas is different because it's *so* many Electoral Votes and it's a bit hard to predict (historically low turnout but that may be changing, plus the COVID situation there) that it's worth taking a flier on. And I do think campaigns need plan for a multitude of scenarios. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, you need to swallow your pride and prepare for which states matter if the election tightens. For Trump, that means conceding the map could look real bad if Biden's current margin holds. For Biden, it means not taking swingy tipping-point states like MI and WI for granted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated