Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 22, 2020

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Sat Jun 27 14:55:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, you need to swallow your pride and prepare for which states matter if the election tightens. For Trump, that means conceding the map could look real bad if Biden's current margin holds. For Biden, it means not taking swingy tipping-point states like MI and WI for granted. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

After all, any election where the race is competitive in November requires a substantial change from today, with Biden up +2 or +3 (or less) instead of +9. If there's a big shift back toward Trump, it may not be uniform across states. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe not, but I think Texas depends to some degree on what's happening in Florida, with which it's correlated in some ways but not others (much younger). You can imagine a world (perhaps not this one!) in which TX is a better target than FL for a Dem. https://t.co/4xjUeBRD98 — PolitiTweet.org

@NateSilver538 My thought on Texas is that it's so expensive that it's not worth this small chance.

Posted June 27, 2020 Hibernated