Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

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Thu Jun 18 17:38:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This means our averages can move *even there hasn't been new polling in a state*. Here's Nevada, for instance, where there's little recent polling but the algorithm is making inferences based on changes in national polls, Arizona and Colorado polls, etc. https://t.co/nLrpwNdA0m https://t.co/5bscmBRWKN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Finally, we calculate a "timeline adjustment". Basically, this adjusts old polls based on trends in national polls and polls of similar states. (so, e.g. Wisconsin polls will have an influence on the timeline adjustment in Michigan polls, but Hawaii polls won't). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The timeline adjustment helps a *lot* in giving you an accurate picture of the race at any given time, especially pre-Labor Day when polling is sporadic. Note, however, that there are still going to be states where there isn't much polling or the polls are of mixed quality. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated