Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Nov. 11, 2020

Created

Thu Jun 18 17:35:11 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Finally, we calculate a "timeline adjustment". Basically, this adjusts old polls based on trends in national polls and polls of similar states. (so, e.g. Wisconsin polls will have an influence on the timeline adjustment in Michigan polls, but Hawaii polls won't). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So house effects are now *mostly* calculated *within* states. I realize that this is a geeky technical point, but it makes a pretty big difference as far as accuracy goes. It gives local pollsters a proper amount of influence in the average. Local pollsters are often pretty good. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This means our averages can move *even there hasn't been new polling in a state*. Here's Nevada, for instance, where there's little recent polling but the algorithm is making inferences based on changes in national polls, Arizona and Colorado polls, etc. https://t.co/nLrpwNdA0m https://t.co/5bscmBRWKN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted June 18, 2020 Hibernated